Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (56582)	11/27/2004 10:03:02 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 74559

<The only way that the world will again see $40/bbl oil is a decline in demand, i.e., a global recession.> Ray, I'll bet $10 to a knob of goat poop that we see $40 again. At $40 there are still all sorts of altervatives which are economic. Oil at $40 will lose market share. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Russia won't stand for it. They'll boost production, open the spigots and regain market share. They are making a fortune at anything over $40 and the more they can sell, the better they'll like it. Iran isn't messing around with uranium because they think their oil is going to run out any time soon. It's not noocular power they want. It's bombs!! Orinoco crude oil emulsions are economic at $40 a barrel for oil. So is coal. So are a LOT of other ways of saving an energy buck, including insulation and buying a CDMA cyberphone instead of an airline ticket. As US$ interest rates relentlessly rise, you'll see some major paradigm shift happen. Shift happens and the end of history and paradigm shift have not happened. We can have continuing economic boom AND a reduction in the price of oil [as the US$ recovers somewhat, the deficit shrinks and Al Q fades into history]. Mqurice

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