<It would be idiotic for the Iranians to bother to go through the stages of nuclear enrichment and weapon production when they can simply buy an off-the-shelf unit from the Pakistanis or the North Koreans.>
Pakistan and North Korea might not be selling. Or, they've already sold and the attempt to get a reactor is a cover/red herring for what has already been done.
In preparing for a nuclear war with India and the USA/South Korea, Pakistan and North Korea might have already decided where best to apply their explosions.
<Re: //Orinoco crude oil emulsions are economic at $40 a barrel for oil. So is coal.//
So what? You can't refine either one of those economically into gasoline, the most important fraction of the distillation process. And you naively disregard the fact that there is no surplus refinery capacity for bitumens, tars and oil sands. >
There's a common misconception that gasoline is the most important fraction of the distillation process. It's not inherently so. It is because that's the one which gets the highest price because of supply/demand balances. If cars run on methanol from crops, via fuel cells, or just ethanol [as elM thinks Brazil will do] then gasoline is going to drop in value. Diesel and jet fuel might become more valuable than gasoline, which would mean turning off some crackers and hydrogenation processes. It's not just distillation that happens in a refinery. Long chains are smashed into shorter ones and hydrogenated, depending on whether the process is rewarding enough.
Coal, gas or heavy crudes can all be hacked into lighter ends with some processing cost. China is investigating coal to gasoline now. It's not new technology. It just has a cost. At $50 a barrel for oil, it's worth doing.
The Syngas plant in New Zealand used to produce gasoline from methanol from methane, but the gasoline step became uneconomic so it was turned off long ago. But at $50 a barrel, if the gas wasn't running out, it would perhaps be economic again [and no doubt is in gas-rich places].
Hydrocarbons are fairly fungible and can be morphed into all sorts of forms. It's just a matter of dollars. If Arabian oil is too expensive, Orinoco heavy crude isn't and neither is coal [or the other options I listed].
At $50 a barrel, the alternatives will be kicking in. [Even though the $50 is in depreciated dollars]
<you naively disregard the fact that there is no surplus refinery capacity for bitumens, tars and oil sands.>
I'm sure some engineering companies would love some orders for new plant or to fire up old ones.
Mqurice |
