Art,
Almost every commodity in the world, with the exception of those related to Moore's Law, is in a strong cyclical uptrend. My first job on Wall Street 30 years ago was as a runner on the floor of the Sugar and Coffee exchange in NY (for H. Ross Perot's DuPont Glore Forgan), so I am no stranger to commodities or their volatility. TA, while especially unpopular among more cerebral investors, does have a place in market analysis, particularly in more cyclical markets, and unlike fundamental analysis, is extremely simple to apply. The key in investing, I have found, is to use volatility to your advantage. Through the use of options, one can even monetize it quite efficiently.
I look for companies with a good management record, below average debt, conservative bookkeeping, and an expanding market for their product lines. I prefer at least some proprietary technology in order to avoid the dog eat dog characteristics of purely commodity products...then I want a stock with a price-earnings ratio below its peers, adjusted for varying growth rates.
Well stated. If you don't mind a commodity related investment that meets most of these criteria but does not suffer from the unfortunate effects of Moore's Law on supply, you might have a look at PKX. I own some and am very pleased.
Are you still working on your PhD, and if so in what field?
Sam |
