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Pastimes : Thread Morons
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To: Alan Smithee who wrote (11527)11/29/2004 3:13:12 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!  Read Replies (3) of 12810
 
Hello Alan,

Don't mock Henry too loudly. He's 100% correct in his assessment of the bird influenzas. And his warnings regarding the next pandemic outbreak is also correct. Globally, we haven't seen a pandemic since the Hong Kong flu back in the 60's (or was it the 70's?). But the real pandemic was the St. Louis pandemic back in 1916-1918 (or thereabouts). A pandemic of that magnitude today would result in 10s of millions of deaths globally, and certainly in the low millions in North America (USA, Canada and Mexico). The pandemic is coming. Statistically, it's overdue by about 20 years now, which statistically speaking, is a huge wait. This current outbreak over in Asia has a mortality rate of near 70%. That is huge. The St. Louis outbreak had a mortality rate down nearer 15% to 20%, depending upon which country was examined. A pandemic flu outbreak with a human mortality rate of 70% would literally kill between 1 and 2 billion people around the world.

There are only 2 antiviral agents that we humans can use against this particular flu should it become a pandemic. One of them is Tamiflu, which is in extremely short supply. The other whose name I can't recall off the top of my head is even less available. And neither one of these drugs is particularly effective against the H5Nn flu variants. They are minimally effective at best.

Will the next great pandemic affect the world this year? No one can say one way or the other with any certainty. But it is 100% certain that the next pandemic is very close at hand. Very close...

EK!!!
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