Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (56615)	11/29/2004 5:02:47 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) of 74559

I was extremely skeptical about TA for a long time.... *** A better test - Given 100 randomly selected charts, a TA analyst can select 15 of them, and get statistically significant results. For the other 85 charts, TA can be would not add much value. This can be tried a large number of times, and produce positve results. Some fairly rigrous examples of this were done at MIT about 2 years ago - soem profs were looking to do an easy paper showing thast TA did not work. ** This track record is not as good as a 30 day weather prediction, or even a 60 day weather prediction. But it does add enough of an edge that hedge funds and major I banks pay the salaries of TA people, and not just to advise clients. **** Behavourial finance is providing scientific basis for certain TA patterns.

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