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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: skinowski who wrote (152816)11/29/2004 8:53:18 AM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
Dunlap is talking about a convergence of several factors and the military problems that are associated with that. One factor is that the gap between off the shelf components and military grade high-end technology is narrowing. Therefore a backwards country with little technology know-how can be resourceful enough to make use of simple technology to overcome advanced technology in use by US military.

The other factor he talks about is psychological. He states that psychologically Americans are not prepared for the kinds of war they may have to fight. Among other things, he points out that developing nations are not so concerned with comfort and safety and therefore have fewer logistical problems. This is the part that Whalen chose to emphasize.

BTW, Whalen is not just talking about Muslim countries. He developed his hypothetical enemy to a good extent based on Yugoslavia and Somalia.

IMO, his assessment is correct. Although the enemy has been slow to progress to the level Dunlop talked about in 1996, many of his predictions have come true in Iraq to a smaller extent. But if we push the our-way-or-highway approach rather than the rule of (equitable and with big teeth)international law, then we can say good bye to American leadership within a 5-15 year period. There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity that allows US to establish proper international law. After that, it will happen with or without US and the results may not be to our liking.

ST
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