NFL lines: Slim pickings in Week 13
Have you had a chance to look at the Week 13 NFL lines yet? Slim pickings.
“Looking at the lines this week is like pulling in front of a McDonald’s menu and realizing you don’t want any of this,” said professional handicapper Dave Malinsky.
The Patriots are laying more than a touchdown on the road. The Colts are already up to minus 11 at some books. The Vikings are laying a touchdown on grass. The Buccaneers are favored against the Falcons. The Jaguars are just a 3-point home underdog to the Steelers.
The oddsmaker has done his homework that’s for sure. No bargains this week.
“We should have tighter lines after 12 weeks,” said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
About the only big early move so far was the Lions going from minus 3 1/2 up to 5 1/2 against the Cardinals with the announcement that Dennis Green would be starting his third different quarterback in three weeks. Facing the Lions will be rookie John Navarre, the Cardinals’ seventh-round draft choice. If Navarre doesn’t fare well in the Lions’ noisy dome stadium, maybe next week the Cardinals will turn to Neil Lomax.
There were some slight early moves such as the Chargers going from minus 3 to 2 ½ hosting the Broncos and the Saints dropping from minus 2 ½ to as low as minus 1 at home against the Panthers, but nothing else real significant.
The Colts are up to 11-point favorites against the Titans at some books.
“You’re seeing lines that are a little more inflated on teams who are public teams and have been winning,” said Jeff Sherman, sports book supervisor and oddsmaker at the Las Vegas Hilton.
The Colts are the most noticeable. The public has been heavily betting the Eagles, too, throughout the season. The Colts and Eagles are a combined 15-6-2 (71 percent) against the spread, which should tell you what kind of season some bookmakers are having.
The Patriots and Steelers, arguably the two best teams in the NFL, haven’t been getting as much betting support. Some handicappers thought the Jaguars might be a good underdog bet hosting the Steelers on the Sunday night ESPN game. But the early number has the Jaguars just getting a field goal.
“Pittsburgh never gets huge respect in the line,” Malinsky said.
Making lines on AFC games has become easier at this stage than setting NFC numbers.
“With NFC teams, even those at 3-8 or 4-7, it becomes trickier,” Seba said. “Those teams still have a shot at the wild card. So you still feel those teams are going to try hard. The AFC isn’t that way.”
One tricky NFC line was the Panthers-Saints. Seba made the game ‘pick’em,’ but the opening number at some of the early places was New Orleans minus 2 1/2. That line has come down to where it’s almost ‘pick.’ The Panthers have won and covered their past three, while the Saints have lost six of their last eight and more than likely have a lame duck coach in Jim Haslett.
“You figure the Saints won’t give up at home,” Seba said.
I wouldn’t be so quick to bet on that. In fact, I’m not so quick to fire away on any game this early in the week based on the number. I was hoping to get Tampa Bay as a home underdog to the Falcons, who are in a flat spot with the NFC South Division all but wrapped up, but no such luck.
The safest play on the board might be the Patriots on the money line against the Browns. That wager has only paid off 25 of the past 26 times. Last year, though, the Browns held New England to just nine points. Of course the Patriots still won.
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