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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (17134)11/30/2004 3:09:22 PM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
>>It could be decades!<<

No kidding, Mish. It could be a decade at least. Although the counter should start from 3 years ago when China formally joined the WTO.

>>1) China is not ready
2) Even IF China was ready that it might not be in China's best interest
3) The face saving process of China is such that even if both 1 and 2 conditions are met, China is unlikely to give into outside pressure<<

And these three points are all valid<g>, and I will put a weight on each.
1) 90%,
2) 5%,
3) 5%

Readiness should include, but not exclusive<g>:
--all big 4 commercial banks have been sold on the market;
--when China has set up a sound foreign exchange center;
--when China has set up a sound system of risk management;
--when China has set up a sound legal system and market system that can effectively manage his financial fields at macro-level;
--when China has set up a sound credit system;
--when China dilutes his debt to a reasonable degree<g>;

That said, widening the Yuan trading band is possible in a near future as long as there are no big pools of money of speculation.
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