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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions

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To: Venditâ„¢ who wrote (2356)11/30/2004 10:33:24 PM
From: Walkingshadow  Read Replies (1) of 8752
 
TZOO has been in the midst of a rather prolonged mo-mo feeding frenzy.... unbelievable.

But I have no shame, I'll trade anything if I think I can make a buck or two.

;-)

One of the nice things about TZOO is the risk profile, which is surprisingly advantageous for a long position. The volatility is misleading..... almost 70% of the float is held short.

That means that when TZOO falls, the shorts will tend to take profits and cover their position, creating buying pressure. And when TZOO rallies, the shorts get squeezed and will tend do the same thing. So you get considerably more upside jolt (up over 17% today), but with a fair amount of downside cushion.

This also means that TZOO is an attractive short candidate at selected times, though this is more risky. Note the two huge black candles AFTER a short term top, each time with obvious signs of a top from the candles, chart, and technicals.

139.142.147.218

I attribute this to shorts taking new positions after another feeding frenzy has run its course, together with longs taking profits.

Note also that, with the exception of these two huge black candles, most of the "volatility" is really upside momentum. In other words, there is much more upside volatility than downside volatility. In fact, the calculated beta is 1.0, the same as the S&P500.... despite the fact that TZOO has outperformed the S&P500 by over 1500% in the last year !!!!

The trend is your friend...

JMVHO......

T
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