Again, cut & pasted from the FC New Tech MB
New Vanderslice report dissects the U.S. FTTP/FTTH market
[Note: The numbers in this article refer to U.S. growth, wheras the numbers depicted in the graphic of the Corning article above (msg #8177) show worldwide growth estimates.]
lw.pennnet.com.
Tulsa, OK -- The U.S. market for Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) is growing rapidly, according to information released by market research firm Render, Vanderslice & Associates LLC (RVA). As of October, homes passed grew to 970,000; homes marketed to 413,000; and homes connected to 146,500. The market appears to be set for spectacular growth in 2005, when homes connected should grow by over 400%, say analysts.
"While such overall market numbers are impressive, a thorough review of underlying market trends is even more important," contends Michael Render, principal of RVA. The research firm has just has released its new annual comprehensive study, which examines the market based on over 600 interviews conducted with nearly all current deployments and random samples of potential service providers. "Completing so many primary interviews and building a database from the bottom up provides a level of information just not possible with a more typical research approach," asserts Render.
According to the report, many specific FTTP/FTTH technologies are being used, and no one technology is yet set to dominate. Ethernet and ATM technologies each have about half of the market in terms of homes passed. "While BPON will clearly grow a great deal in 2005 because of RBOC involvement, there is also an underlying trend toward higher-end technologies such as EPON, GPON, and point-to-point Ethernet," explains Render. Vendor market shares are also shifting, he says.
Besides RBOCs, deployments are growing from municipals, developers, independent ILECs, and others. As an example, the study used random sampling to determine that 31% of independent ILECs expect to offer FTTP/FTTH to some of their customers within five years, up from just 3% who currently offer it.
The study also finds that over 80% of FTTH deployments offer the "triple play" (excluding RBOC deployments which have not yet launched video). "While analog/RF video is most common, there are clear trends toward more IP delivery," Render notes.
The study also concludes that consumer acceptance of FTTH has been strong, and it includes a model for predicting take-rates based on characteristics of deployments. Render believes the future will look even more interesting. "New applications that cannot run on lower bandwidth systems are emerging, and there is a quiet race toward true convergence," he asserts.
For more information about the report, "Fiber-To-The-Home: The Third Network: FTTP/FTTH 2004/2005," visit www.RVAllc.com. |
