Think the point of this exercise is that there is extreme cold air in Canada, and it has the potential to break south?
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Joe's Bastardi Meteorological Outlook: November 30, 2004
TUESDAY MIDDAY: BARBARIANS OF THE NORTH AT THE GATE, BUT WILL IT SWING OPEN ENOUGH TO TURN STEP DOWN INTO SMACK DOWN?
Arctic air is spreading southward and eastward across much of central and eastern Canada over the next 7-10 days. The biggest question to me is, what king of inroads will it make? So let me just stick with the idea. The major polar vortex pulling the arctic air in leaves over the top over the next 7-10, and downstream reformation will evolve out of the processes that ensue, mainly the action of warmth and cold reforming the upper trof in a way that may indeed cause the ideas that have been alluded to here to have merit.
But over the next week, the biggest problem I see is trying to judge the push of the bitter cold. A piece looks like it gets into northern New England Friday and again early next week. Every GFS run is farther south with the boundary in the northern Plains and the new run goes right to the idea that the storm that develops this weekend over the south will pull up into the Lakes and pull down at least a piece of it, sending the coldest weather of the season down the Plains behind it early next week. While the ridge off the Southeast coast is something that is there, so is the trof east of Hawaii, and that ridge keeps backing off more and more.
One has to realize that it's not one system that does this. It's a repetitive process of tugging and tugging till it finally locks in. The GFS is trying to show this with each run now, as its ensembles show the backing away of the upper low and the reformation downstream of the new trof near the East Coast, with ridging over central Canada. What happens in the cases studied, most notably 1963, 1976 and 1983, is that the pattern pulses away from its warmth and then locks in. All three got their starts late in November and deepened to a severe result at various times later. But in trying to get this point across, I think people think this is an overnight thing.
And listen. I am willing to admit I may not be on the right track here, but it is funny how the modeling may indeed be going that way now. The coup de gras, so to speak, may be if the typhoon recurves.
But there's all sorts of worry here even in the next 5-7 days. The mean upper flow stays west-northwest through southern and eastern Canada through the weekend. The low-level cold, dense air loves to push with things like that. The lowering of pressures farther south with the southern jet invites it south also. I termed the air mass barbaric, for forecasters that miss it will find it is unforgiving to its skill scores. We are talking daytime maxes north of that boundary Sunday in southern Canada, and perhaps the Dakotas, 20-30 below normal, and as I have said, whether it is before or after the upcoming situation this weekend and early next week in the Plains and East, the air mass will bust numbers. It's just that if it comes more quickly, there can be real problems. The UKMET run last night showed what can go on.
But my main idea now is for the storm that develops in Texas Sunday and Monday to pull northeastward and get to the Lakes and pull cold air down behind it. The changes talked about before lead to rises in the means over the West for the middle and latter part of next week, but energy coming through can try to reamplify downstream in the developing eastern trof later next week and the week after. Should the typhoon recurve, its affects may not only be indirect (the implications aloft of a recurving typhoon), but perhaps a trackable entity that enters the West coming through the ridge next weekend and then has plenty of cold air around to do its dirty work farther east. Now we are talking days 12-26. Lo and behold, model madness is now more or less consistently showing the pattern I am worried about this evolving toward.
But even if it does do that, I know how there are stumbling points and setbacks. The point is that at least it looks like some of the ideas are still worth some consideration.
As for the caboose, well, I have no changes there. Until I see this system over the northern Plains, it's hard to say, but one never, never, never should trust that king of system, the last in a series of trofs with a transitional pattern. The UKMET solved the problem by letting it stay with the northern branch, not splitting away on its own, and simply leading the arctic front into the East. (Please no questions about how much snow in such and such a place from this.) Considering it looked like a 0% chance, and of course if it doesn't occur, it would be, a couple of days ago, and considering the tone of this missive, I think I am just about as far out on thin ice as I could be.
By the way, anyone notice that the last three cold winters started with little advance notice by forecasters in general? Think about the nation's midsection 1-2 weeks before December 2000, that was pooh-poohed. So was the winter of 2002-2003, and of course last January's three-week period in the Northeast was being looked at as out of touch too, but the weather and actual numbers proved differently.
Now I will say it before you do. I remember 2001-2002 like yesterday, so pardon me if I don't just go completely out of control here...only half way.
By the way, another December-named storm should be on the charts. What is that out there if not a warm-core system?
Name it and be done with it. But as I pointed out last week, it is not heading westward and pumping the ridge, but northward in front of the offshore trof.
It's 12:25 Eastern time. Sorry about how late this was as I got tied up...winterizing my cars.
Ciao for now. |
