If Africa gets itself together, it will do so with South Africa as the motor, being the most advanced black nation on the continent. The Maghreb is going to try to get a level two clearance in the EU, a kind of Mediterranean zone. The EU might not be warm, though. The patterns are so highly contingent that they are not at all clear. I agree that Japan may seek to increase ties to the US and Australia rather than to East Asia. It is in a different state of development, even from China, and its interests are more similar to ours. I am not sure what will happen to Russia. I suspect it will carve out auxiliary membership to multiple blocs, but that is speculative.
I have sometimes envisioned a special union of Anglophone nations, including India, where English is one of the official languages, and most educated people know it. It would be stronger union than the British Commonwealth, and the United States would be at its center. It would not be a nation or federation, but a looser confederacy of states, drawing the member nations into closer cooperation on a variety of issues. |
