Setting a decent pace for independence would be a good idea. I am not sure about a 15 year time frame, but there is already a shift to increased use of natural gas and coal, and nuclear designs have improved safety and made further investment more likely, so we may make more rapid progress than I would have guessed.
Keep in mind that 60% of oil is used for transportation.
The reason there is a push to these other fuels is because of scarcity and capacity. There is also another more mercenary reason - because these other resources are there, and because unbridled capitalism remains. In the case of coal, we are overlooking one problem for another. Clean coal is oxymoronic in the extreme. In the case of nuclear, there remain many issues.
Perhaps these problems can be addressed, but the telling thing, for me at least, is that virtually no effort is being focussed on reducing consumption.
When I see someone providing leadership on reduction and efficiency, then I will believe there are responsible adults in charge, not before.
In the meantime, domestic production continues to go down, and foreign imports go up. Capacity utilization in the energy production and delivery system is close to extremes, even as consumption continues to trend up.
Since capacity can't be turned on overnight, something will have to give and it isn't a 15 year time span we will have to make change happen, so I rather think change will be forced upon us all. By who or what remains to be seen. |
