comment on January 2005 Iraqi election:
1. Making the assumption that the election will be fair, and that the U.S. will allow the winners to rule, it seems clear Sistani will be the de facto ruler of Iraq in 2 months.
2. The Sunnis, Kurds, and seculars all want the election postponed, indicating they think they will lose the election. By process of elimination, the religious Shia parties expect to win.
3. All the parties are based on ethnicity and religion. No liberal democracy can exist, unless the political parties are based on ideology, not religion and race. This is a bad sign.
4. Chalabi is amazingly nimble.
5. Sadr is also on Sistani's approved list. I wonder if his militia will get absorbed into the Iraqi Army, after the election.
6. Unfortunately, whatever government is formed, will probably only control the Shia part of Iraq. The Kurdish areas will remain under the control of their militias; the Sunnis are boycotting the election, and will most likely keep fighting. Kirkuk and Mosul will be a battleground between Kurd and Sunni (and maybe Turks, too). Baghdad is on the Sunni-Shia dividing line.
7. Conclusion: the upcoming election looks like a prelude to the partition of Iraq. |
