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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (22744)12/2/2004 11:32:21 AM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Date: Thu Dec 02 2004 10:45
trotsky (RANGY) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the way this stock acts, something must be seriously wrong. it can't be explained by the Rand's strength alone. is there something happening we haven't been appraised of? remember, with the Kebbles nasty surprises are the rule, not the exception.


Date: Thu Dec 02 2004 10:42
trotsky (December gold contract) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the by far largest call open interest sits at the 450 and 440 strikes ( about 12,000 and 9,500 contracts respectively ) . it stands to reason that the call writers will attempt to drive the contract to a level by expiration time that inflicts max pain on these calls. put OI support comes in at 430 and 420 ( approx. 7,000 and 6,100 contracts respectively ) . note that the 430 to 440 zone is also a reasonable technical target for a correction, since 430 is the previous resistance level that should now become support.
whether the call writers will succeed in this is of course a different matter. they will try, but success is by no means assured. if e.g. today's sell-off reverses very quickly ( within a day or two ) it will be more likely imo that it turns into a run-away market.
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