The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Amy J who wrote (25577)	12/2/2004 12:50:47 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 306849

Heinz on housing and the gold correction do you think it's impossible for a bubble market to become saturated and peak without an exogenous trigger? please note, in spite of the lowest mortgage rates in two generations, monthly mortgage ( and property tax ) PAYMENTS are up at a record high. meanwhile, affordability is at a record low and rental yields are at a record low, since prices have risen further above trend than at any time in history. also, foreclosures and delinquencies rise relentlessly month after month - and are at a multi year high. the probability that the bubble has ended is very high - prices haven't come down much yet, but this is the typical time lag embedded in what is a rather illiquid market. the damage will only become obvious once transactions that have been postponed due to too high asking prices get done ( this is what the inventory/sales ratios tell us unequivocally - when inventories rise sharply while transaction volumes fall, it is because the spread between bid and ask prices is too large )<.b> . Message 20820513

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