Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: ild who wrote (17407)	12/2/2004 1:43:45 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Heinz Comments On RodgerRafter's Retail Theory Via email Blog comments tomorrow. Thanks again Rodger now from Heinz: it sure sounds like a reasonable hypothesis. i'll post it with my own comments tomorrow. the only thing that surprises me at this stage is that the onset of the consumer recession has taken so long - imo it's pretty clear though that it IS now beginning. housing and retail both look very shaky here - the main pillars of the 'recovery'. we should also see trouble at consumer credit firms (like e.g. credit card cos.) fairly soon imo - along with everything that's tied to them. in housing, the first whiffs of trouble could be detected in CFC's atrocious earnings report - if the credit expansion stalls, cos. like CFC will really get into trouble. they only were able to report such stellar numbers in recent years because they created new credit faster than existing credits defaulted. this ratio will imo reverse at some point. the car makers like GM and F are in the same boat...may even be worse, since they're going to lose money with cars, their prension obligations, AND their lending activities. and they carry debt that would make medium sized countries blush.

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