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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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From: quehubo12/4/2004 9:02:38 AM
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The 15 day forecasts lead us right up to the holiday period last year where we had low industrial demand and mild weather. Who knows what the weather forecasts will be for the holiday period, for certain demand will be way below normal. So we have 15 day forecasts with the USA mostly above normal and then we have a 10 day period of low commercial and industrial demand.

It appears we wont have any weekly period of 210+ GW HDD outside of weeks effected by holiday shutdowns. So we could be entering the New Year with 2,800 or so bcf. Remember 1/1/2001?

I am trying to determine the hand being dealt to us here. I doubt we will have something that brings NG prices below $5, but I do suspect we are heading to an environment where NBR and PTEN may lose allot of leverage until supply demand balance gets cleared up. There will certainly be plenty of uncertainty about 2005 recognized over the next few weeks if weather and draws dont improve dramatically.
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