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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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From: Frank	12/4/2004 10:56:30 AM
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Well, it is Bastardi against the world -- or at least all other forecasters. He says all these GFS calls for warm weather are "nonsense", "out to lunch" and "ridiculous'. Siberian air coming he says and rest of December " colder than normal pattern ....major cold outbreaks possible. " in all the areas we care about. Now here is my question. We know Bastardi tends toward hyperbole but he ain't dumb and knows his rep is out there now. On the surface, it appears he is going against 8-10 other forecasts --WSI, WeatherChannell, NWS, NOAA and so on. But is he really? My understanding is virtually all of these 5-15 day forecasts are GFS based. Thus, they all came from same model no matter how many people on TV repeat them. This means if GFS wrong all forecasts based on data are wrong--this may be too simplistic but perhaps Bastardi has detected a flaw in GFS and he is correct. Huge implications for my decisions next week -- lots of money involved --bet on Bastardi or the GFS. Not that simple but I agree with Que --the weather next few weeks could have major impact on this sector for many months --Frank

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