>> asking for biotechs that seem undervalued <<
They're definitely early-stage companies, with significant downside if the earliest stuff fails.... but I'm watching ARQL and ACAD. Both are subject to "dribble-it-out" sellers who are holding back any appreciation.
mopcgw (or whatever it is.... George) is waiting for lockup to establish a full position in ACAD. Don't blame him... history is our biggest enemy in this sector. There's more balance to ACAD than to the one-trick-pony, ARQL.
The sellers? Anybody afraid of lockup for ACAD. ARQL? I believe that it's Samuel Ackerman of Cyclis. If so, we might be assured that the selling results from greed/need, rather than wisdom.
Definite exposure to big downside in both stocks, and I wouldn't consider a buy unless other proponents fall in behind me and give good reason for owning them. ARQL is low burn, price:book of 2. ACAD is highly diversified, price:book of about 4.
A third stock.... MYGN..... the most highly diversified of all biotech business plans, there will be two huge events hitting by mid-2005. Phase II results for r-flurbiprofen are due for Alzheimer's, and anecdote re. "6827" phase I results will be floating around. 6827 is worth watching closely, IMO. I've followed the project since the days of CoCensys (CoCensys -----> Cytovia -----> Maxim ------> Myriad). It's one of two INDs due before 12/31, one of four due before 12/31/05. Price:book is about 4, with a highly profitable business in predictive medicine and 49% of Prolexys.
I would love to hear from anyone who believes that any one of these three is a flat out mistake. Might save me a buck or two.
edit: please note that ACAD is an ultra-low liquidity stock. Once you're in, you're stuck. Please also note that I don't know squat about their projects.... just "hunch" investing here, with a tad of feel for Sibia-like discount. Dr. Tracy? |
