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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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From: CalculatedRisk12/4/2004 11:47:31 AM
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Interesting FED speech (Janet Yellen 12/1/2004):
The U.S. Economic Outlook: A Monetary Policymaker’s Perspective

NOTE: This is the first time I've heard a FED Board member admit that whatever "growth" we have seen has been built on a quagmire of debt (my words).

EXCERPT (my emphasis added):

"These results for the economy certainly look pretty good. But I think there are some important issues to consider about the economy’s performance so far that may have implications for the outlook—and for monetary policy—going forward. In particular, it’s important to recognize that, in order to get this performance, monetary policy has had to be extremely accommodative and for a very long time. Indeed, the economy has been getting a push not only from substantial monetary stimulus, but also from substantial fiscal stimulus, including several tax cut packages and increased spending on defense and homeland security.

So today, I’d like to spend a few moments exploring why this might be happening—that is, exploring what factors might be putting a drag on demand in the U.S., necessitating a lot of stimulus just to achieve trendlike growth. I’m going to focus on five factors altogether. Three appear to be having an impact now and may continue to do so next year; they are: higher oil prices, “restraint” in investment spending, and a large and growing trade gap. The remaining two have not had an impact yet, but they have the potential to exert a drag on the economy going forward; they are: the low personal saving rate and the waning impetus from fiscal policy."

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