Phil, thanks for the links. I visited them all and downloaded van Eeden's speech which I will listen to in due course.
Apropos his and my common view on the gold price, I find this bit rather stunning:
>>The undeniable correlation is no coincidence, and begs the question whether the dollar can sustain its current exchange rate. I have already addressed that issue in a previous article (see "Predicting the Gold Price", February 6, 2004) and concluded that gold is likely to exceed $1,000 an ounce within five years, regardless of whatever short term volatility we encounter on the way. We should, however, not be too sanguine; a nasty short term correction in the gold price can severely damage one's portfolio, which is often accompanied by a general sense of humor failure.<<
If the relationship remains true, a gold price of $1000 means that the USD index will fall to less than half its present value ie 40 (on the Richter scale!) And it also means one Euro will be worth 2.6 dollars. Frankly, I can't see this simply because, other than goldbugs and currency speculators, I don't know who will benefit? Certainly not the US and most decidedly not the countries whose currencies will have to be revalued to accommodate the USD devaluation. Anyway, talk is cheap -- especially as far as guessing the gold price is concerned. And it seems the higher one guesses, the more one is regarded as an expert -- and the more one can charge for one's newsletter. |
