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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: marginmike who wrote (17705)12/5/2004 5:55:09 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
>>That being said, I am looking for a dollar rally because the consensus now agrees with me, so I will take the otehr side of the bet for a trade!<<

I think the consensus is now for a blistering USD rally "any day" -- it's what I read most. These "contrarians" started in around DXY 87 and we keep getting new converts ... keep trying -- you'll be right eventually. Hopefully, you are shorting a currency like the euro and not gold.

Since you and every "smart" analyst is now calling for a big USD rally -- what is going to be the catalyst??

I think a lot of folks don't understand that the move down in the dollar has been huge and largely irreversible given its status as a world reserve currency -- this can't be compared to time when the dollar sank before in the 80's. (I think some are even ignorant of the fact that a weaker dollar is really the unofficial "official" policy now -- it's government supported 100%.)

You might make a nickel on a bounce (a retrace in the euro), but you are playing a small correction in a major downleg -- this is the problem with short-term hedge fund type thinking ... looking for one of these corrections in a major downleg -- what is the percentage in such a trade -- really??

I laugh when I see Lance Lewis is shorting gold shares again -- now there's another low percentage / high risk play. It was probably smart in January this year -- when they were scraping highs -- but a lot of these shares are nowhere near highs.

I guess if he is lucky enough to nail a decline and book 10% or so and he can strut his stuff -- but there are easier trades all over the place.
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