In another sign that so-called Iranian "reformers" have lost their credibility among the masses, Iranian students today heckled President Mohammed Khatami in a speech to mark Student Day at Tehran University.
Very strange.
Khatami is the one guy they should be cheering.
I'm currently reading Pollack's book on Iran, The Persian Puzzle. I commend it highly. Pollack's analysis is typically dispassionate, well-researched, and thorough.
There are no good options with respect to Iran. The hardliners detest us, the rest of the populace, or at least a goodly percentage of it, detests the hardliners, who are mostly clerics, but really do like the US. The catch is that Iranians, even the most liberal, are incredibly xenophobic, so anything we might do to destabilize the clerics will rally the Iranian reformers/liberals around the hardliners.
Plus, the so-called "reformers" are not exactly the types we would like to have take over Iran. They are simply a improvement, but not necessarily a great one, over the clerics and hardliners.
I agree with Pollack's notion that the Iranians are not the same kind of crazy risk takers that Saddam was, and are therefore unlikely to present the same kind of challenge that Saddam did. On the other hand, if they get their hands on nuclear weapons, they might easily be tempted to do things that they might not otherwise do but for owning nukes.
No good options, particularly as the clerics are trying to follow the China model. i.e., liberalize socially and economically in order to dampen anger towards the hardliners but pursue a radical foreign policy while maintaining a repressive domestic political agenda. Like the Chinese, the clerics think that domestic liberalization will give them freedom of action.
Pollack suggests a three-part policy consisting of a combination of pushing a Grand Bargain, i.e, total resolution of our problems with Iran, which he thinks is unlikely, mixed in with very detailed program of sticks and carrots depending on Iranian behavior, with containment as the third leg. Only under the most necessary circumstances should we consider military action. We should also not consider destabilizing the clerics since it would boomerang against us--all Iranians are paranoid about our intentions, even the most liberal ones who really do like the US. |
