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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: michael97123 who wrote (153490)	12/6/2004 5:42:36 PM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Too many problems with a tristate solution, leading to regional discord. The Kurds are dispersed from Central Turkey into Iran. The Turks fear Kurdish irredentists. They are prepared to march on Kurdistan to prevent it from becoming the nucleus of a new state. With the Shi'ah, they are Arabs and comparatively moderate, and have control of most of the holy sites of Shi'ah. There will be pressure to absorb them into Iran if they are independent, which will be widely resisted by the Iraqi Shi'ah, but which will form the basis for strife between internal factions with external support. The Sunni are in danger of not only being completely left out of the oil spoils, but of having revenge wrecked upon them for manning the Ba'athist state. If a substantial number of them continue to battle for control, there may be an exercise in ethnic cleansing to rid the rest of the country of the nuisance. Anyway, sure, there is a point where we might cut losses. But it is that point where the Iraqis fail to step up. We are not there, but will be in another year or so.

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