No worries, it's the least I can do.
I think people are a bit oblivious to the fact that oil has been in a strong, sustained uptrend for a very long time now. This uptrend has been very orderly, until rather recently.
Just because oil has pulled back from the highs does not say anything about a trend reversal. In my view, the long term uptrend continues. I see no evidence yet that a reversal is developing.
Eventually, this will impact the market more fully, as well it should. I think the repercussions from rising oil have been understated and/or ignored.
I know that some who concentrate on the oil markets believe the uptrend is still solidly intact, and that oil will hit at least $62 in the next several months. I have no reason to doubt this. The factors leading to the rise of oil are all still fully valid and in place. The cushion is rather thin. And winter is coming, with a dearth of heating oil, despite the surprisingly high stockpiles of light sweet crude (which can not be refined into heating oil anyway). And OPEC evidently has no plans to increase production of heavy sour crude, even if they could (doubtful).
Personally, I suspect that oil will rise to around $60 or more in the next 6 - 9 months, and at that time, the market will no longer be able to avoid facing the realities of that. This could be one major factor contributing to a much more bearish tone, which I think the markets will adopt sometime next year.
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