I can't see much in Iraq's future except more or less ongoing internal conflict, perhaps even outright civil war. They just can't get along with one another. The various factions hate one another, and that has been true for centuries. I don't see how they can be expected to suddenly decide to acquiesce and lay down their arms, just because an election has been held that the losing sides will probably claim is "U.S.-rigged." I don't see that in their behavioral repertoire at all. Whatever regime is elected, the other factions will criticize by saying they are merely puppets of the U. S. infidels.
But even if you are right, and stability somehow comes with a presidential election, I don't think that will have much impact. Basically, they are already near maximal production, and like most other OPEC countries, have little interest in driving oil prices down even if they could.
And... I can't see what possible motivation they would have to break with OPEC. That would enrage the entire Arab world, and destabilize the cartel and so therefore the orderliness of the markets. And I think they are well aware that one of the purposes of the cartel is to maximize profits for everybody that is in the cartel. Why would they want to disrupt that?
Besides, the cartel doesn't really rule with an iron hand. It is common practice now for member countries to adjust output regardless of what OPEC mandates. They just don't make a big deal of it, and they don't create confrontations or take defiant attitudes. So it works pretty well, I'd say.
So I anticipate that whoever controls Iraq, they will try to maintain the status quo in the oil markets, and will do whatever they can to maximize their profits. Besides, they owe that to their own people (not that they particularly care about that).... it is the Iraqi people who have gotten screwed for so long. About time they started benefitting from oil profits. Doing so would do wonders for a new regimes' ratings, that's for sure.
....JMVHO....
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