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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: quehubo who wrote (37191)12/7/2004 10:19:24 AM
From: Keith J  Read Replies (2) of 206184
 
que,

Am still having difficulty disecting what is happening with NG demand and supply. Even with increased pipeline and LNG imports, I view gross supply as roughly flat with last year (excluding the still shut-in gas in the Gulf).

However, Raymond James indicates there is a lot less liquids stripping (over 1 bcf/day) at this point than last year.

So that currently puts net available supply at about 1.5 bcf/day less than last year (including Gulf shut-in gas).

On the demand side, adjusting for weather, it appears that NG use for power is up slightly. Industrial demand is a bit harder to gauge - industrial production numbers are strong, Dow Chemical says volumes are up, refining is strong. But for sake of argument, lets say industrial demand is down around 5% (or 1 bcf/day) via conservation and demand destruction.

That leaves commercial and residential. With new buildings and houses, is hard to believe there would be a significant reduction in demand unless people are turning the thermostats back. Yet it appears we are running close to 2 bcf/day lower than the baseline, and given my calculations above, that would mean we are running 2.5 bcf/day under normal in the residential and commercial sectors.

Where else could the difference in supply or demand be coming from?

KJ
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