Given the trends set forth below, it appears that internal reform in Iran is in trouble. Unfortunately, there is very little that can be done about this troubling development. From the Washington Pest:
boston.com
Iran's conservatives seen tightening power in republic
By Robin Wright, Washington Post | December 5, 2004
TEHRAN -- After eight years of a bold but bungled experiment with reform, Iran's government is in the throes of a takeover by conservatives determined to restore the revolution's Islamic purity, according to Iranian politicians and analysts.
The transformation is symbolized by the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose limited scholarly credentials were questioned even by his peers when he was selected 15 years ago. His authority caused a national debate during the reform era, when he was in danger of being sidelined politically, analysts said.
But today, they said, Khamenei is more powerful than at any time since 1989, when he succeeded the leader of Iran's Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Critics said his control is as far-reaching as that of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi before he was overthrown in 1979.
"The pendulum has swung. Khamenei is in a better position than he's ever been," a senior Western diplomat said on condition of anonymity. "There's a real cockiness in the stride of his camp."
Khamenei's consolidation of power, partly through a new parliament that took office in May, has given even more leverage to religious institutions, including the judiciary, the Revolutionary Guards, and vigilante groups such as Ansar Hezbollah, analysts said.
As a result, fear, intimidation, and harassment have become instruments of the state in ways reminiscent of the early fervor after the 1979 revolution, Iranians say. Women can still wear relaxed dress, but the debates over political openings and reforming Islam have gone behind closed doors, or ended.
Conservatives say they are merely putting the Islamic republic back on course and restoring limits on discourse while not undoing social change.
"Islamic values in all aspects of the system are necessary to sustain the system. . . . And nobody can change them according to his taste or interpretation," said Hussein Shariatmadari, a leading ideologue and editor of the Kayhan newspaper chain.
"For instance, it is not important that women wear the chador or wear light colors or dark colors, but they should wear decent hijab," or Islamic dress, he said. "When we talk about Islamic values, that's what we mean. . . . Voting and higher education for women have not been forbidden."
But critics warn of a future with further restrictions, particularly after a presidential election next year that many Iranians expect conservatives to win.
"We are going to move from something trying to be a democratic government to what will become a totalitarian regime," said Mashallah Shamsolvaezin, a reformist editor who has been jailed three times and who has worked for five newspapers that have been closed. "Conservatives think this democratization trend has to be stopped."
Beyond Khamenei, Iran's future is far from settled. The big question in Tehran these days is over which conservatives will dominate. Their camp offers at least four distinct philosophies about running the country and dealing with the outside world.
The ideological conservatives take the most puritanical line. They are sometimes called Kayhanis, after the newspapers that reflect their views. Shariatmadari, their editor, is their most public voice. They take a tough stance in dealing with the outside world and on Iran's nuclear energy program.
Shariatmadari, who wields enormous influence, opposed the recent deal signed under pressure from Europe to suspend uranium enrichment for Iran's nuclear energy program, which critics say could be diverted for a nuclear weapons program. "I believe that we should have exited the Nonproliferation Treaty two years ago," he said in an interview.
International treaties, he said, do not prevent nuclear proliferation.
After India conducted a nuclear test, the United States imposed sanctions, only to lift them and deepen ties when US interests shifted. "Such a situation urges us to have a nuclear bomb," he said.
At the same time, he said, the production of a bomb would not be accepted under Islamic belief. |
