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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (18012)12/8/2004 3:34:50 AM
From: GraceZ  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
One of my favorite spread sheets is from the OMB and it is the rough composition of Federal outlays. The figures are given in dollar amounts from 1945 through 2009 projected. They are also factored as percentages of GDP, in total and as subgroups. Also the various outlays are then given as percentages of the entire budget.

whitehouse.gov

You can see how various items like defense spending and interest payments have changed in dollar amounts, as a percentage of GDP and as percentage of total government outlays.

In 1945 the interest on the debt was 1.4% of the GDP and 3.4% of all outlays. In a non war year, 1954, it stood at 1.3% of GDP and 6.8% of outlays. By 1994 it was 2.9% of GDP and 13.9% of outlays (debt service peaked in 1995). 2004 it is 1.4% of GDP and 6.7% of outlays, or around double where it was in 1945 but less than half of where it was in 1994 as a percentage of the budget and as a percentage of the GDP.

The one thing that is glaringly obvious from delving into this spread sheet is how much defense spending shrank as a percentage of GDP and how much transfer payments to individuals (either direct or indirect) increased, payments to individuals now constitute 60.7% of total government outlays. In 1945 they were 1% of the GDP and 2.4% of the outlays.
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