I'm really not one who is fond of these year-enders that begin with "once-again,-as-another-year-comes-to-a-close,-it's-time-that-we... " openers, but because Jeff Pulver has some interesting insights concerning where VoIP is going next year, I'll post them here, anyway. From the Jeff Pulver Blog entries of Dec. 8 2004:
192.246.69.231
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It seems to be that time of year again; the time for people to share their predictions for the year ahead. After reviewing the results from my foggy crystal ball, the following are my predictions for 2005.
1) 2005 will be the year VoIP in the USA crosses the “early-adopter chasm”.
2) Broadband penetration will begin to snowball in the US, but not at a pace fast enough to raise America’s mediocre global standing in broadband penetration.
3) While we will see the restart of VoIP IPOs, we will also see some VoIP startups burning-out due to lack of marketing funds and customer base … and vision.
4) 2005 will be the year of still more major carrier VoIP announcements, as well as very significant product announcements from major non-carriers (including software and Internet giants).
5) As the debate grows over the meaning and application of “Net Neutrality” and consumer empowerment, new battle lines and tangling alliances will form between and among carriers, vendors, application providers. Debate will grow over the continuing role for unaffiliated, non-carrier VoIP providers.
6) (a) The FCC will not establish an IP-Communications Bureau.
(b) The FCC will release an Order in the IP-Enabled Services Proceeding setting forth a broad hands-off approach for VoIP.
(c) The industry will spend several years sorting out what it all means.
7) Governments around the world will take a closer look towards regulating VoIP. VoIP providers will respond by stepping up efforts at industry-based solutions for many of the social issues confronting the industry (e.g., emergency response, lawful intercept).
8) Carriers that have not adopted a VoIP strategy by 2005 might not be around in 2007.
9) Wireless will continue to replace wireline at a faster pace.
10) ENUM continues to happen around the world and the US will continue to lag.
11) Open Source communications continues to gain momentum. The effects will be felt in 12-18 months
12) IM and incidental communications and applications (such as “presence”) continues to grow unregulated.
13) Universal Service will move to a connections-based system.
14) Access rates and inter-carrier compensation will trend down, although we will not yet see the long-anticipated unified intercarrier comp reform in '05.
15) Sides are further drawn as Congressional debate grows over the likely rewrite of the Communications Act of 20xx. We find out who our friends are and who was just giving lip-service.
16) If 2004 was the year of WiFi, then 2005 might be the year of Bluetooth. 2005 will see the emergence of the first dual, or multi-mode, phones capable of switching from WiFi to mobile wireless (and perhaps to landline).
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Any comments or thoughts on these predictions? For those who see VoIP as important to their roles, or just plain interested in it, you should visit Jeff's blogspot. He's been very active in Washington lately giving and taking in talks (bible lessons, one could argue) with listening politicians and regulators, alike, as he has been for some time, thereby fulfilling an important need as you'll see if you visit the site.
In Item No. 5 he speaks of "Net Neutrality." What does Net Neutrality mean to you? Anyone?
FAC
frank@fttx.org |
