Faris: I'll try and answer you querries:
This time he has gone on public record stating that this new set of
debentures WILL BE redeemed prior to the conversion date. Do you not trust him
and, if so, why not?
It is not a question of having faith in Faris, it is a question of having too little time to get the financing, you of all, after being pulled by the nose with financing promises from Lodick should know that financing just does not materializes when you want it. You must admit that the 5 weeks left to October 6 is a very short time.
2. There has been steady accumulation of this stock over the last week. Efforts to
short the stock have been intermittant and have usually been met with block buying
by someone.Is it possible that these (or this buyer)) buyers are ignorant of the
dynamics that you warn us of?
The strength you note does not even qualify as a 50% retracement of the decline from above 3 to 1-5/8 earlier this month. I think that one can view this as either "accumulation" as you see it or "distribution" as I see it.
3.The refinery, as you know from reading this thread, is estimated to
have a re-sale value of about $40-50 million .
I could not find this on the balance sheet, if I missed this please point me to where it is. As for the value of the "concession" the political risks of losing the concession (look at Exxon losing a bunch of efforts and investments in Russia) are not zero, and there is not a single well there that allows determination of even probable oil, less than that proven. Once they prove a billion barrels, or at least have some good indications of such a find this will be another story. In order to that they will need to spend something of the order of $100 MM and the means by which they get this money will be critical for future valuation.
4. No I do not take the political situation into account, since if I did, I would have to say the political risks of not having the concession three years hence are quite large.
5. Faris, Faris, you have not learned yet, do not believe anything of what they are whispering in your ears and only half of what you see with your own eyes. Here you take a wild rumor and make it a fact. I hope no one is investing based on this rumor. You and no one else have an iota of proof that anyone is looking at putting these $20 MM bucks. It reminds me of the Arab Chieks Alexander was supposed to have for backing Arakis in the old days.
6. Yes I said the stock will visit the 1's and it did, it went as low as 1-5/8, for those relay enamored with the stock, that was a chance to buy. I will repeat it here again, IMHO, the stock will be in the 1's again within the next few weeks.
Good luck to you. When are you coming back to DBDY, I hear they are getting their financing arranged <VBG>.
Zeev |
