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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (57035)12/8/2004 11:30:34 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
message sent to Jim Turk on Gold Price today
we met at a Chicago Conference in late October
I did not agree with his analysis on gold targets
he said not one word about China, secular deflation, split economy with necessities vs discretionaries
/ jim

Jim,
at the conference, several people asked me about your $485 endofyr call for gold... to them I said that Chinese factors render this a very different environment... in no way did I want to challenge you in a public manner at the keynote speech... when asked for my endofyr gold price, I said "somewhere around $455 on a breakout"... you did not once mention China in your presentation... I cannot understand any analysis of gold which does not factor in China as a central factor... Europe and Japan fight the US$ rise... more importantly, CHINA ENSURES THAT PRICE INFLATION FOR FINISHED GOODS IS NOWWHERE TO BE SEEN IN THE USA... that is the most important distinction from 1970 decade to today... the gold rise will be an uphill struggle every step of the way during this secular deflation marred by monetary inflation

take it easy
/ jim

p.s. excellent rebuttal to ETF Gold, right on the mark
I expect custodial receipts eventually to become mixed up with leased gold receipts from the last decade !!!
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