Analysis: Egypt steps into the regional ring
Barry Rubin, THE JERUSALEM POST Dec. 9, 2004
Something big is happening in Cairo. It isn't just the release of Azzam Azzam from wrongful imprisonment as an alleged spy, or nice words from President Hosni Mubarak about Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, or the return of the Egyptian ambassador. Egypt apparently has a strategy for moving quickly in the wake of Yasser Arafat's death.
For the last four years of his life, Arafat ignored Mubarak's advice and the Egyptian government resented it. True, to a large extent tension over the Arab-Israeli conflict serves the regime's interests in providing a distraction and excuse from its own domestic failings as well as for rejecting democratic reform.
At the same time, though, Egypt would like to play a central role in brokering a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Such a development would reinforce Egypt's leadership role in the Arab world, its importance as an American ally, and might weaken radical Islamist forces which threaten the stability of Egyptian society.
Perhaps, too, as Mubarak nears the end of his career, he would like to pass on a better regional situation to his successor, who might well be his son. This outcome did not happen in Syria, where an ailing President Hafez al-Assad rejected peace with Israel in 2000, but maybe that is an example Mubarak does not want to repeat.
The Egyptians no doubt noticed the speed with which the pro-Syrian leader of Fatah, Farouk Kaddumi, rushed to Damascus, followed by Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and other new Palestinian chiefs for a reconciliation with President Bashar al-Assad. But Egypt is the natural patron for Abbas. Their views are very parallel. Both would like an Israeli-Palestinian cease-fire, a peaceful turnover of the Gaza Strip, and even a comprehensive negotiated solution. The stage could be set for a new high in Egyptian influence over the Palestinians, at least since the death of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1970.
Israel has agreed to let Egypt engage in large-scale training of Palestinian security forces and to station more troops on the Gaza Strip's border with Egypt. The Israeli hope is that Cairo will see it in its interests to reduce arms smuggling and ensure that radical Islamists do not gain a powerful position in that area.
It remains to be seen whether or not Egypt will deliver on those expectations and Egyptian media sources seem to have exaggerated the behind-the-scenes progress already made in order to justify their country's activism. Still, Mubarak seems to have an ambitious plan to promote peace. He is approaching other countries with the idea of putting together a major initiative in which a multi-country Arab state recognition of Israel would be part of a peace deal.
In an unusual move, the Egyptian government ordered some newspapers to run articles sympathetic to Israel and the Israeli press attache was allowed to appear on Egyptian television to explain the country's views.
Egyptian leaders seem to have decided that the time is ripe for a major effort in which the readiness for flexibility by both Sharon and Abbas, the new PLO head, could offer a real chance of a diplomatic breakthrough. How far the Egyptians are ready to go and the chances for success are open to question. What is clear, however, is that Egypt is making a real effort.
The writer is the director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and an editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal.
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