There is no doubt wireless technology is moving more quickly than I ever thought it would. I think it will be important for XM and SIRI to become media companies, not just satellite radio companies. Hopefully, that's what they're doing.
Finally, perhaps you may get it.
It's all about the content.
Betamax was first with better technology. XM admittedly is first and with better technology. Without knowing Stern's audience, the shorts and the XMSR tout, have made judgments that, so far, have been proven wrong.
We see the same war going on in HD DVD's. Whoever gets the content will win irrespective of which technology is considered by geeks as "better."
I have not subscribed yet because I am waiting this year to get the state of the art equipment. By that time SIRI will have caught up with XM.
If Stern left tomorrow, I would bite the bullet and get the latests radio and then would upgrade in 2 years. I suspect that the more than 3 million who will follow Stern feel similarly. The $13 is a drop in the bucket.
When I subscribe, I will listen to the other stuff in place of my regular radio but none of the other material has so far been interesting enough for me to switch. I'm a sports fan but I'm not bored enough to listen to games on the radio. TV, if you can't go, is sports unless there is a rare game that happens to be on while I'm driving and I am totally bored. I think the sports contracts have been big wastes of money for both companies. If I had to choose between listening to NFL or MLB, NFL would get the nod strictly because of perhaps a "betting" interest. MLB I wouldn't listen to a game although I feel there is almost nothing better than going to a summer baseball game.
Music - IPOD, my computer, my home system, MTV and FM are enough.
Financial - someone mentioned a strong business channel without commercials. Or perhaps the bandwidth would allow several channels during the day to be devoted to various topics, with notices streaming as to what the other channels are providing. That would take me away from CNBC and MSNBC which I use as a radio during the day.
Unlike someone else here, I can see both surviving. I am the realist here. Both are priced on hype. There is no traditional argument for treating XMSR as a value play. If one recognizes this and wants to play, then SIRI is the only choice.
XM is dead money, tagging along up and down on the exaggerated moves of SIRI. It's gambling I agree, but either one is a gamble. Buying SIRI after a move down yesterday or after the Stern news or after the Karmazin news will continue to have high percentage upward moves.
Long term players will win long on both but percentage wise, it will be SIRI as opposed to XM. |
