Insurgencies can win wars of attrition with foreign troops, but not indigenous troops. Granting the premise of asymetricality, guerrillas cannot secure sufficient territory to control the country. Thus, insurgencies have as their ultimate goal "propaganda by the deed", that is, the winning of the allegiance of large segments of society to deliver the coup de grace to the existing regime, whether through a general strike or a mass insurrection that controls the capital and other strategic points.
Up to this point, the insurgents have failed in their goal of instigating a mass action. Even the attack on Fallujah did not rally significant segments of the population to their defense, just as Najah was a big bust for Al Sadr. If the elections occur, and a government with clear mass support arises, backed by its own security forces, the insurgency is doomed. Thus, the insurgents have to consider whether to make a last ditch attempt to turn the tide.
It is my guess that the "hard cores" will try to escalate, but will be thwarted by logistical problems and the defections of those who see the writing on the wall. So, I suppose there will be some spike, but that it will not be sustained throughout the next few months. If we clean out southern Syria, I am not sure we have anything much to worry about. |
