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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 57.58

+0.9%

Dec 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (14437)	12/9/2004 4:45:31 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) of 52153

How questionable is the efficacy? The safety/patient acceptance concerns I used to have concerned the multiple injections into the eye. It just occurred to me that there is a precedent here: Isis' Vitravene for CMV. It also requires multiple injections: rxlist.com Disease severity roughly similar? The difference is that I don't remember any other treatments for CMV, whereas there for AMD. That might cause the FDA to use a slightly higher bar on Macugen. With EYET's PDUFA date on the 17th, I might roll over my gambling money from SEPR calls into EYET calls (current strategy: if in fact it comes after SEPR's, and on another dip onto the $42s; January expirations, slightly out of the money). The IV for both pretty reasonable. Neither stock will double, but could easily tack on five to ten points on optimal outcome, a handsome return for the risk. The risk for SEPR is in the label, IMO; will they get the best label? I'm betting they will (it will be interesting to watch the response in NBIX stock). I also think Macugen will be approved, and that marketing is going to be the main issue. Patient choices will be multiple ocular injections versus losing your sight versus Visudyne. Hmmm . . . Risk/reward of holding EYET after approval not as good as holding for approval, is my bottom line. Cheers, Tuck

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