Right Wing News - Make no mistake about it, Rudy Giuliani could very well take the nomination in 2008. But I can tell you definitively that the battle ain't over =D
Rudy is likable & very charismatic, he has a tough guy reputation on crime and terrorism, his stock went way up during this election cycle because of his effective campaigning for George Bush, and yes, he is "America's mayor".
But, Rudy is far from a lock. By 2008, 9/11 will be more than 6 years back and a lot of the fond memories people have of Rudy standing tall after that dark day will have lost their emotional impact. Furthermore, how is Rudy going to keep himself fresh and in the public eye until then? That's an unknown.
Moreover, a lot of Republicans just don't know all that much about Rudy other than the highlights.
For example, how many Republicans know Rudy is not just pro-abortion, but is in favor of partial-birth abortion? He's also pro-gay marriage and has been in a very messy divorce. Giuliani's former wife publicly accused him of "open and notorious adultery". How do you think that's going to play with the same Republicans who reviled Bill Clinton because he cheated on his wife?
Yes, I do agree with Hugh that there are things Rudy can do to reassure social conservatives about those issues, but will he do them and will they believe him? No matter what Giuliani does at this point, the reality is that there are going to be a significant number of social conservatives who just aren't going to give him money, who aren't going to go door to door for him, and who aren't going to be all that motivated to turn out to support him on Nov 2, 2008. That's not something that's impossible to overcome, but it's also a huge minus for a man who wants to be the Republican candidate for President.
Of course, I'm not saying Rudy is unelectable or can't win the nomination, but I suspect a lot of Rudy's luster is going to rub off after people get to know him a little better. Maybe he'll still win despite that. I mean if for example, it comes down to Giuliani or John McCain, an egomaniacal blowhard who's going to be 72 years old in 2008, Rudy may end up being a viable option. But at some point, I suspect Rudy's stock is going to drop precipitously among Republicans when they get a better idea of what he stands for. |
