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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 55.11-2.6%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: rkrw who wrote (14619)12/10/2004 8:53:39 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
Barr is the originator of patent challenges with the most experience. I'd guess they'd have to be 90%+ certain to risk it.

But note that comment from Barr that they had never before launched at risk before going to trial.

I do agree with you that if they do launch at risk it certainly would say a great deal about what they think their chances of success are. But with multiple patents at issue and the prospect of triple damages, I'm not sure that this is a real threat or just an analyst blowing smoke. The damages if they lost could be simply huge given how long the patent had to run - KOSP could argue that they were forced to stop building their brand. Barr could be looking at damages in excess of $2 billion - and all for six months of a $200m drug. (Although I suppose if nobody else launches then that six month exclusivity could drag on for much longer).

Peter
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