Incredible as it may seem, apparently the commercials agree with Kasriel, that they may pause after Tuesday's hike to 2.25. They were short 171,827 EDs on 10-26, and are now long 189,765. When you look at ED prices, now they appear to be reflecting three successive hikes,
trendmacro.com
the commercials think not. Of course this is criminally irresponsible, but it's important for us not to "try and change the world", and if policy is run by criminals, sycophants, and friends of speculators and Bully, adjust accordingly.
Eurodollars(CME) Mar 97.150 12/10/2004
Eurodollars(CME) Jun 96.920 12/10/2004
The commercials also seem to be betting that the notes and bonds stay right here. It's too early to see if there's been a shift in FX and gold (*), as the market moves came after the Tuesday reporting day. We will know more next week, hopefully the funds start clearing out of the huge longs, and allow a less risky anti-USD opportunity to develop, especially since rate policy will not be USD supportive. The specs and funds are clearly out of their energy long positions, and judging from the action on Friday, may be nicely short that market. The commercials are now very short the stock market at 141,686. They have an off the chart long position in grains especially corn, patient I must say.
64.82.65.31
(*) I had posted this false breakdown in HUI setup at the end of Nov:
Message 20812357
Be sure to see third chart from bottom, with the comments. With the HUI now down in the 210-220 zone, I've been aggressive, basically just picking off my favorities on the dips, and holes. One will find some of my follow-up posts on names at that thread. Many just gapped lower than my SWAG targets on Wed. morning, allowing even better entry prices. |
