From my old company, BP, Lord Browne says: <Firstly, the data illustrates the continued growth in reserve volumes across the world. At current levels of consumption there are sufficient reserves to meet oil demand for some 40 years and to meet natural gas demand for well over 60 years. On recent trends there appears to be considerable scope for proved reserves (and production) to keep rising in Russia and elsewhere. Reserves, globally, have grown over time and it is clear that the issue of energy security, which has been so prominent over the last year, is driven not by a physical shortage of supply but by the challenges of ensuring, in a world where demand and supply are not co-located, that there will be sufficient traded oil and gas to meet rising demand.>
Primary consumption [oil, coal, noocular, hydroelectric, gas] bp.com As you say, oil at about 40% isn't going away any time soon.
With OPEC cutting production, not increasing it, despite Saudi Arabia's recent claims to be increasing production capacity by a third, peak production is obviously still some time away.
As you say, I'm stretching a point to claim oil is a has-been, when production is continuing to increase. bp.com It's a bit like I've been calling GSM a has-been while GSM has continued to maintain overwhelming dominance over CDMA. From an investing point of view it's important to be ahead of the game, so has-beens can still be growing while it's time to dump them as investment opportunities.
Oil at only 40% of primary energy production is not ruling the roost. OPEC has a limited market share of energy. If they cut production, they don't just raise the price of oil, they make competitors more competitive and lose market share.
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