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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: flint who wrote (25878)12/12/2004 12:20:31 PM
From: Jim McMannisRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
RE:"The advise to hedge your falling property value by short Home Builders has always been given here."

I must have come late to the thread. I thought shorting the home builders was simply an idea to make some money. I suppose however that some saw it as a way to hedge a loss in home value.

RE:"This advise has always been. It's more wrong today than ever before. The never has been in the history of the world a "housing bubble", rather it has always been a "land bubble". "

The idea of the land bubble seems right on. However I imagine that can fluxuate as in the past. Indeed, it is that land that fluxuates to the greater degree.

RE:"Hedging your land by shorting housing is simply insane."

Maybe. But more than that is trying to time a megatrend that can go on for long periods of time.

The government(s) keep piling on tax breaks for real estate. Couple this with the southern homing response and extremely easy money and you have what you have. At least half of the value of RE comes from tax breaks. With the 250/500 rule now you can even cash in and pocket money tax free. The laws created to promote home ownership have turned the housing market more into a speculators game. Even a casino, due respect to Las Vegas.
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