Tex, I agree completely, but I have noticed some cracks in these stocks the last 2 months. Both technically as well as fundamentally.
If you take a look at the big names LEN, BZH, PHM, RYL, TOL, KBH, MDC, CTX, HOV, and DHI and study their charts before TOL reported they all look as if they were just about to roll over. I have concluded this was probably based on the concern that earnings might be slowing so shorts added as some longs dumped. TOL was really the only stock to make a clear bolt away from its recent high. So you could conclude what was witnesses on Thurs,a nd Friday was an old fashioned SQUEEZE! With LEN and KBH reporting this week as well as FED move it looks like a top might, and I say that trepidly, might be forming in this group.
HOV's earnings on Wendsday caused the index to selloff, is that whats in store for the other 2 reports? Is TOL simply the exception to the rule since they build the highest end of luxury homes??
I'll be watching very closely the next 30 days to enter some long term shorts but for the moment I am still gathering my DD to finally make the move.
thanks for your reply |
