piper POZN :3Q In Line; Trexima Phase 3 On Track
2004-10-27 17:05 (New York)
Sandeep Bhatia, PhD, CFA, Sr Res. 612 303-5574,
sandeep.a.bhatia@pjc.com
POZEN Inc. (POZN - $9.12)
Market Perform
Volatility: High
Price: $9.12
52 Week High: $18.46
52 Week Low: $5.07
Price Target: $8.00
Shares Out (mil): 28.8
Market Cap. (mil): $262.7
Avg Daily Vol (000): 93
Book Value/Share: $1.39
Cash Per Share: $2.13
Debt to Total Capital: 0%
KEY POINTS:
* 3Q Results In Line. POZN reported 3Q EPS of ($0.20), in line with our ($0.22) estimate.
* Trexima Phase 3 Trials On Track; GSK Doing Additional Studies. We continue to expect that restults from the two ongoing Phase 3 trials will be available in mid-05 with the potential for an NDA filing in 2H05. Each Phase 3 trial has a target enrollment of 1,400 patients (350 patients in four arms). An open label long-term trial to assess safety of Treximais also underway and fully enrolled with 500+ patients. Separately, GSK is also conducting two Phase 3b/4 studies.
* Pipeline Drug Could Advance In Clinical Development Next Year. POZN has previously disclosed positive top-line results from a proof-of-concept study comparing Prevacid+Naproxen combination tablet (20 patients), NapraPAC-- a blister card with Prevacid capsule and Naproxen tablets dosed separately (20 patients), and Naproxen alone (19 patients). POZN plans to advance this pipeline drug, that will combine a proton- pump inhibitor with Naproxen, into further clinical development in 2005.
* Maintain Market Perform Rating And $8 Target. We are maintaining our Market Perform rating and our $8 price target.
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION: We are maintaining our Market Perform rating and our price target of $8, which is based on a 40 P/E times our 2009 fully taxed EPS estimate of $0.43 (adjusted down from $0.44), discounted at 20% for four years.
RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF TARGET PRICE: Risks include delays or disappointments in MT400 Phase III trials. |
