The news that BLDP's longtime partner Daimler is getting together with GM for a major effort in hybrids is, IMO, the first step toward it effectively giving up on fuel cells and BLDP. Well, DCX will never entirely give up, because money spent on fc's remains very effective in distracting politicians from imposing stricter gas mileage and pollution requirements today. But it must be increasingly obvious to DCX that fc cars are doomed except as a PR stunt. Cost reductions are many years and magnitudes behind schedule, and even if car companies could produce a cost competitive fc car, the economics of creating a H2 infrastructure remains horrible. And all to create a car that won't perform, in terms of efficiency or the environment, much better than a hybrid available today, and may not be as good as a hybrid available in whatever year fc cars finally get introduced, if ever.
To brag a bit, all this is exactly as I predicted on this thread seven years ago. This is from my post #870 from 9/2/97 listing two major hurdles:
"One is the infrastructure problem, which is that gas stations have gasoline, not methanol or hydrogen, and there may be a chicken and egg type problem getting them to switch before there are fuel cell powered cars on the road. This is why I think Ballard's best hope is the work being done by Delphi on reforming (extracting clean hydrogen) from gasoline. [Note: Nothing ever came of that.]
The second is the threat of the hybrid gasoline/electric vehicle. No, it is not an elegant solution. No, it is not as clean as the fuel cell vehicle. But it gets a very big percentage of the way to that goal, compared to where we are today. And it is here now, with Toyota offering one commercially before year end in Japan. By 2005, when DB's first fc cars are supposed to be offered, Toyota and others will be several generations further along in perfecting the technology, based on real life experience."
As I pointed out a month later in post #1068, the H2 problem was the biggest stumbling block:
"If hydrogen were cheap and available everywhere, then we would all have been driving around in PEM cars a long time ago. If Ballard fails, or it turns out that fc cars don't hit the market until 2015-2020, the culprit will probably not be the PEM fuel cell itself, but the difficulties and expense of creating pure hydrogen from much more readily available fuels."
In December of 1997 in post #1366, more about hybrids:
"From what I have read about the Toyota hybrid gas/electric car, which is ready for the market now, I think that technology may leave fuel cell powered cars in the dust. I think the chance has to be considered that DB may abandon ship along the way."
I also explained why, in post #1276 from 10/31/97, BLDP was doomed to failure in its attempt to attack the market for large stationary power generators. As I predicted, and for the reasons I stated, BLDP several years later gave up on that market.
Of course, my opinions were attacked by nearly everyone on this thread at the time, so I thought I would treat myself to a little "I told you so." And yes, in the 1999-2000 bubble, BLDP soared to many times where it was in 1997, but the stock is now well below the 1997 price. I was right, just way, way, way ahead of time. But that is still better than being wrong. |
