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Technology Stocks : Progress Software
PRGS 42.16-1.3%3:59 PM EST

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From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh12/14/2004 12:50:16 PM
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It has been a while since I updated this table, so it seemed about time. This is a tabulation of PSC's reported revenue from licenses versus services (including maintenance) since 1991. The YoY column is the Year over Year percentage change from the year before. 2004 data is based on a projection of revenues through August (Q3) based on Q3 versus FY data from 2003.

Licenses YoY Services YoY Total YoY
1991 $40,478 $17,822 $58,300
1992 $57,894 43% $27,156 52% $85,051 46%
1993 $73,582 27% $38,058 40% $111,640 31%
1994 $88,426 20% $50,811 34% $139,237 25%
1995 $110,785 25% $69,350 36% $180,135 29%
1996 $93,178 -16% $83,512 20% $176,690 -2%
1997 $95,579 3% $92,735 11% $188,314 7%
1998 $113,312 19% $126,578 36% $239,890 27%
1999 $131,499 16% $154,648 22% $286,147 19%
2000 $109,218 -17% $162,138 5% $271,347 -5%
2001 $95,253 -13% $168,331 4% $263,584 -3%
2002 $93,468 -2% $179,655 7% $273,123 4%
2003 $95,253 2% $168,331 -6% $263,584 -3%
2004 $123,864 30% $185,988 10% $309,852 18%

For those who haven't been through this before, the rise in both absolute and relative service dollars is expected for a mature software company because of the increasing size of installed base. Only if there were a notable increase in non-renewal of maintenance would one expect this figure to fall ... which it did in 2003, but it seems to have recovered in 2004.

I have always felt that the interesting column here was the license revenue one since that relates to new progress installs and expansion of existing installs (and a few people I suppose that got hit for increased costs on platform changes). After 4 years of rather discouraging results in this area, 2004 seems to show a significant gain.

In 2004, revenue is a combination of revenue from Progress, Sonic, ObjectStore, Peer Direct, and Data Direct. Data Direct was acquired in December 2003, i.e., the first month of Fiscal 2004, and thus contributes significantly to the 2003-2004 difference. PSC does not provide a full breakdown by division, but figures for total revenue including license and services for the first 9 months projected as above to full year figures yields:
Sonic $26M
ObjectStore $21M
DataDirect $27M
PeerDirect revenue is not mentioned and the DataDirect extrapolation is based on a simply 4/3 projection since prior year data is not reported. One might guess that a much smaller portion of these figures was related to services since none has the mature installed base that the Progress Products have. If we allocate 50% of each division's revenue to services, this means that $37M of the $124M in license revenue came from a source other that Progress licenses, i.e., roughly equivalent to 1994.
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