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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 273.40

-0.1%

Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: Bill Ulrich who wrote (4605)	8/30/1997 11:02:00 AM
From: Alomex	of 213177

Analysis on Apple... Downgrade on entry price target to $15. Reason: Licensing problems with Power Computing. Prediction: $17 per share by October. Reasons: The latest battle with PowerComputing show that Apple is not yet above past mistakes. Apple seems to think that its billion dollar losses and giant market share losses are attributable to a $10 upgrade plan and a succesful clone maker. One can conclude that (a) Apple does not get it and (b) any big name potential clone maker, like Gateway, will now have second thoughts before jumping in. Apple is being penny wise and pound foolish in suspending the upgrade, but hey, what else is new? Looking deeper into their "turnaround" strategy, which is now a six year old effort, we can see that Apple is not running a business but playing the lottery. Apple keeps on playing long-shots into the next great thing and hoping that the reward is large enough to bail out the company. Apple has bet the company on: 1.- PowerPC chip 2.- Copland 3.- Newton 4.- CHRP 5.- Exponential 6.- OpenDoc/CyberDog 7.- Rhapsody I wish that instead of betting the company on Copland, they had focused on completing the port to PowerPC of MacOS and removing the bugs. Something that Apple was unable to deliver on in several years but Next engineers did in a few months. Same goes for Exponential. The problem with Mac is not CPU speed, but rather high initial cost. None of the changes proposed by Spindler/Amelio/Jobs are geared towards converting Apple into a low margin hardware maker. They have no chice but to do this, and yet they are not doing it.

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