Hamilton's Pamplets blog - Washington Recount Math, The Sequel
I started to do this as an update to yesterday's post: Washington Recount Math, but the more I wrote, the more I wanted this to be a separate post.
Stefan provided some higher math in the comments to yesterday's post last night. I had pointed out that the 561 "found ballots" in King County were conveniently just enough to give Ms. Gregoire a narrow 2 vote victory. Stefan wrote to tell me that it turns out that as of yesterday there were 577 "wrongly disqualified ballots". Using his superior math skills Stefan determined that the 577 ballots should yield a 106 vote advantage for Ms. Gregoire in King County.
Strangely, Dino Rossi had a 106 vote advantage as of about 5:00 pm yesterday, with 32 of 39 counties reporting in. Proving once again that their math skills suck like a Hoover (sorry but I'm still not sold on Dyson) the Dems managed to manufacture a TIE. Not a "virtual tie" or a "statistical tie", but a real no kidding they have the same number of votes tie.
Using my questionable math talent, and my numbers from yesterday (mostly cause I didn't save that spreadsheet), that leaves six counties left to report and Rossi has averaged around a 2 net vote gain per county, so it looked like a 12 vote win for Rossi.
But wait, on my way to work today while listening to KVI (AM 570) and Kirby Wilbur, I hear that yesterday's number was 573 not 577 and that King County has "found" 22 MORE ballots bringing the grand total to 595. I think the math still holds up, but even if it doesn't, you can count on King County to come up with a few more ballots to pad Gregoire's margin.
Using Stefan's numbers from yesterday, that would result in 21 two party votes. Use the 60/40 split numbers and GUESS WHAT?! It gives Gregoire 13 votes, or a 1 vote margin of victory. Does it get any more transparent than this? Every time the math goes against Gregoire, King County "finds" just enough ballots to eke out a Gregoire win.
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