Ep and Bruce,
The discussion of India is interesting. On the one hand we have an onsite visit by Bruce and a very interesting historical review, and on the other we have the economic growth, real growth, that the "world's largest democracy" is experiencing. GDP seems to be predicted to grow 6.3% next year, and perhaps 6.8% the year after.
economictimes.indiatimes.com
It apparently tripled its GDP between 1983 and 2003.
worldbank.org
Services are now more than 50% of the economy, and agriculture has shrunk from over 1/3 to less than 1/4 of the economy.
It may very well continue to fracture (since 1947 it has already fractured into Pakistan, India and Bangladesh) politically.
Will things such as poor legal protections of individuals and corporate corruption stifle its economic growth? Probably, to some extent. It all depends on how the corruption plays out. If you have a Philippine (Indonesia, maybe Russian) style corruption, then you're doomed. If you can keep it to a Japan, Korea, European (some might say American) level of corruption, then you're probably going to grow nicely.
One thing that is sure, compared to the economic basket case that India was during most of my life, this new development phase is a step in the right direction.
Kb |
