Yes, and the sad thing is that many of them will become reality, though I don't ever see an Iranian/Israeli rapprochement.
In the order of likelihood which I think is probable, I see these things happening in the next 10 years or so:
1.- The costs of being a global cop become too much for us. We therefore leave Iraq to its devices, though we provide as much aid and support as we can. A civil war between the Sunnis and the Shias eventually breaks out which the Shias win. As a result, Iran and Iraq no longer are enemies, but become instead an oil powerhouse to rival if not surpass Saudi Arabia.
2.- After a brutal succession struggle, the elder Saudi princes are replaced either because of age or forcibly. The new King inherits a mess which he cannot control. A successful rebellion begins. Ultimately, the Royals are given a choice: leave Saudi Arabia or remain but renounce any claim to its wealth. A Muslim religious state is declared which uses Saudi oil wealth to promote Muslim values. Because of Islam's dynamics, these values regress. Islam becomes extremely fundamentalist and aggressive. Terror and military actions prevail. However, there is still great tension between the Sunnis and the Shias.
3.- An uneasy peace prevails between the Shias and the Sunnis. A Caliphate is declared across Islamic portions of the ME and North Africa. Nigeria is part of the Caliphate.
4.- Armed with nuclear weapons supplied by Pakistan, the Caliphate threatens to bomb Tel Aviv if Israel does not agree to the Palestinian right to return. Under pressure from its own, Israel agrees, calculating that Tel Aviv is not worth losing even if it means that Mecca and other Muslim holy sites are also lost. Israeli leaders believe that the demographic problem created by the returning Palestinians can be controlled politically. Of course, it cannot. The Arabization of Israel commences.
5.- At the same time, Muslims make serious political inroads into German and French governments. Terror is prevalent in both countries, as well as in the UK. All make concessions to the Caliphate.
6.- The US becomes a fortress nation with events similar to 9/11 occurring three to five times a year. Because international trade is severely curtailed and the price of oil has reached astronomical levels, the US enters a prolonged period of economic depression. While we are able to remain more or less free, we are unable to challenge the Caliphate in any global sense. Our values and institutions slowly wither and die under the pressure of a bitter political battle between the left, and its arguments for peace with the Caliphate and the right, who wants to challenge it.
China and Russia become trading partners with the Caliphate. Russia agrees to permit the various -stans and Chechnya to enjoy full political autonomy while China guarantees the rights of the Urguyrs [sp?] in exchange for peace. China become the supplier of arms and other goods to the Caliphate.
India suffers from a nuclear exchange with Pakistan. It remains and isolated and increasinlgy embattled bastion of democracy and liberal values.
7.- The only places in which liberal Western values prevail are in relatively unimportant tropical paradises such as New Zealand, Tahiti, and Hawaii as well as in countries such as Canada and Switzerland. Real estate in them becomes incredibly valuable. |
